When Sustainable Harvesting Becomes a Trap
A stochastic strong-Allee model shows why average sustainable yield can conceal a collapse threshold and why a feedback refuge changes the finite-horizon risk–yield frontier.
Read articleKenneth Cheng · Macau
Mathematical models for real systems.
From ecology and evolution to cities and learning: reproducible computation, explicit assumptions, and honest limits turn models into testable research questions.
Latest writing
A model should survive the next question.
This issue moves from finite populations to phylogenetic trees and harvesting risk. Every article includes an English and Traditional Chinese edition, interpretable figures, validation boundaries, and references.
When More DNA Makes the Wrong Tree More Certain
A synthetic quartet experiment separates sampling error from model error and shows how a long alignment can give complete bootstrap support to the wrong phylogenetic tree.
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When Randomness Defeats Natural Selection
A Wright–Fisher experiment shows why a beneficial allele is usually lost when it begins as one copy, how migration can oppose local adaptation, and why a brief bottleneck leaves a lasting genetic deficit.
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Four connected programmes
Research is organized by questions and methods, not by publication date.
01↗02↗03↗04↗
Environmental Modeling
Spatial disease, ecosystems, coastal risk, climate forcing, and energy-environment interactions.
Mathematical Modeling Education
Pathways from an open-ended question to assumptions, computation, critique, and communication.
Reliability and Uncertainty
Sensitivity, calibration, robustness, and decision-making when model inputs or operating conditions are uncertain.
Urban and Mobility Systems
Models of routing, accessibility, traffic stability, fleet operations, and infrastructure trade-offs.
Selected research
Evidence before volume
Only projects with a clear question, reviewed figures, and visible assumptions and limitations appear here.
Accessible Multimodal Routing at Gongbei
A cohort-aware model of how slopes, stairs, transfers, crowding, and missing elevators change routes through a border hub.
Graph-Calibrated Battery Thermal Early Warning
A calibrated graph-CUSUM benchmark for warning of local battery-pack thermal faults when a temperature sensor drifts or becomes unavailable.
Interpretable EV Dispatch and Replenishment
A white-box pipeline links energy prediction, fairness-aware scheduling, and disruption-triggered replanning.
Teaching
From first model to student research
Courses, interactive models, Python laboratories, and mentoring form a path from first assumptions to independent inquiry.