LEARN · EXPLAIN · REVISE

A simulation makes 10k equally likely selections from labels 1,…,k. What model probability does label 1 have?

Read the idea, work independently, then explain what changed.

TOPIC 01

Probability: mixed assessment

A mixed assessment: identify the method, justify it and revise your reasoning.

Use one hint at a time. A correction explains what changed, not just the final answer.

01 / Standard#Your turn

k=10

Skills and prerequisite lessons

Working and explanation

BUILD THE REASONING

Hint 1

Distinguish observed relative frequency from a model probability and describe the experiment.

Hint 2

Separate the per-trial model from the number of simulations.

Worked solution

Distinguish observed relative frequency from a model probability and describe the experiment.
Calculate or simplify this relation.
$p=1/10$
More simulations improve empirical evidence; they do not alter the specified probability.

The requested value is 0.1.

Checks and common pitfalls: More simulations improve empirical evidence; they do not alter the specified probability.

Think first. Reveal a hint when the class is ready.

Teacher preparation and assessment