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A claim assigns probability 1+1/k to an event. Explain why it cannot be valid.

Read the idea, work independently, then explain what changed.

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高一必修 第二册(A版).pdf · 10.1 · PDF 235 / printed page 228

Revisit first: Statistical case study

TOPIC 01

Random events and probability

Build understanding of random events and probability through definitions, contrasting cases and justified applications.

What you will be able to explain

  • Use random events and probability to state a justified conclusion.
  • Connect representations and justify the steps, including boundary cases.
  • Explain a solution and apply the idea to a changed situation.

Try it. Leave your reasoning visible.

Use one hint at a time. A correction explains what changed, not just the final answer.

01 / Transfer#Worked example

A claim assigns probability 1+1/k to an event. Explain why it cannot be valid.

k=2k=2
  • Use the domain, units and sampling assumptions stated in the question.
Skills and prerequisite lessons

Working and explanation

BUILD THE REASONING

Hint 1
Describe the sample space and event sets, then count or apply a probability identity.
Hint 2
Check the probability axioms before calculating.
Worked solution
  1. Describe the sample space and event sets, then count or apply a probability identity.

  2. Calculate or simplify this relation.

    1+1/k>11+1/k>1
  3. All event probabilities must lie in [0,1].

It exceeds one, outside the allowed probability range.

Checks and common pitfalls: All event probabilities must lie in [0,1].

Reasoning checklist · self / teacher assessment
  • State the relevant definition, condition or model.
  • Show a valid calculation, proof or counterexample.
  • Interpret the conclusion with its restrictions.

Think first. Reveal a hint when the class is ready.

Focus on one question

Teacher preparation and assessment

Question sequence

  • What must be true before using the main rule for random events and probability?
  • Which representation makes this task easier, and why?
  • Change one assumption. Does the conclusion survive?

Board plan

  • Use random events and probability to state a justified conclusion.
  • Event sets: An event is a subset of the sample space; probability is its numerical measure.
  • Probability rules: Use complements and inclusion-exclusion with their set meanings.
    P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)
  • Close with: conditions → representation → reasoning → check.

Anticipated thinking

  • Expected reasoning: An event is a subset of the sample space; probability is its numerical measure.
  • Expected reasoning: Use complements and inclusion-exclusion with their set meanings.
  • Expected correction: Disjointness and independence describe different relationships.

Assessment checklist

  • 1: identify the givens and required quantity.
  • 1: choose a valid definition, representation or method.
  • 1: present connected, correct reasoning.
  • 1: check conditions and explain the result.

No sign-in. Work stays in this browser. Export before clearing browser data. Written reasoning is assessed with a checklist.

Curriculum and source notes ↗