Reading models and evidence

Eight useful concepts

Start with an example, then separate what a model answers from what it has yet to establish.

These are reader-facing explanations for the articles, rather than quotations of standards. Each entry keeps its example’s scope and reference sources visible.

  • Concept guide

    Baseline

    A declared reference method or case used to judge another result, with the comparison conditions made explicit.

    Also used: reference method · comparator

  • Concept guide

    Assumption

    A condition taken as given when constructing a model or argument; its conclusions depend on the relevant conditions holding.

    Also used: model assumption

  • Concept guide

    Sensitivity

    How a chosen output or conclusion changes when specified inputs or settings change. Global sensitivity analysis can attribute output uncertainty to uncertain inputs.

    Also used: sensitivity analysis · numerical sensitivity

  • Concept guide

    Identifiability

    Whether the specified model, inputs and observations can distinguish parameter values. Structural identifiability asks about ideal information; practical identifiability asks what the actual finite, noisy experiment determines.

    Also used: structural identifiability · practical identifiability

  • Concept guide

    Calibration

    For prediction intervals here, using held-out observed errors to adjust a band toward a stated coverage target.

    Also used: interval calibration · prediction calibration

  • Concept guide

    Validation

    Assessing, with appropriate evidence, whether a model or procedure meets requirements for a specified use under stated conditions.

    Also used: model validation · validation data

  • Concept guide

    Robustness

    The extent to which a specified result or level of performance survives specified changes in circumstances.

    Also used: robustness bound

  • Concept guide

    Uncertainty

    Incomplete knowledge about a quantity, process or outcome. It may be represented by a probability model, a set of possibilities or a stated qualitative limitation.

    Also used: measurement uncertainty · uncertainty set

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